ProbablyRight31
0xb6670f34f17edaa549a58c7dd4f90ad55aed0514
- Realised P&L
- $2.12
- Volume
- $234.23
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $27.26
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.117 | 0.121 | $5.19 | +$0.19 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.469 | 0.465 | $4.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.315 | 0.242 | $3.85 | −$1.15 |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.181 | $3.63 | −$1.37 |
| Will Harry Kane finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.206 | 0.140 | $3.40 | −$1.60 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.195 | $2.29 | +$0.29 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.738 | 0.767 | $2.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will Rodri finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.163 | 0.060 | $1.86 | −$3.14 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET · Up | 0.645 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.04at 0.304Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
- +$1.00at 0.242Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET
- +$0.78at 0.362Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
- +$0.06at 0.547Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 16:33 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.4689999917 | $5.00 |
| 10-19 16:31 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1169999993 | $5.00 |
| 10-19 16:29 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.3149999975 | $5.00 |
| 10-19 16:28 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 10-19 16:26 | Will Rodri finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.1626591201 | $5.00 |
| 10-19 16:25 | Will Harry Kane finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.2058823469 | $5.00 |
| 10-19 16:22 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $2.00 |
| 10-19 16:22 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.737999755 | $2.00 |
| 10-19 16:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | SELL | 0.58 | $2.19 |
| 10-19 16:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 16:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 16:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET | SELL | 0.47 | $4.07 |
| 10-19 16:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 16:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 16:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |