jk6889
0xb619f0c05b9ab19fca47ca84181dc9efd69bb8de
- Realised P&L
- $-81.59
- Volume
- $49.5k
- Markets traded
- 163
- Open portfolio
- $29.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded163
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.115 | $18.40 | −$2.40 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.360 | $11.52 | +$2.56 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on August 4? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 4? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$169.64at 0.568S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 9?
- +$168.50at 0.568S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 19?
- +$163.75at 0.605S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10?
- +$153.57at 0.569S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 29?
- +$149.50at 0.652S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 07:00 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.28 | $8.96 |
| 08-03 07:51 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.3 | $9.00 |
| 08-01 08:45 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 37°C on August 2? | BUY | 0.23 | $24.38 |
| 08-01 08:29 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 2? | BUY | 0.11 | $17.05 |
| 08-01 08:28 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 2? | BUY | 0.35 | $3.50 |
| 08-01 08:27 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 2? | BUY | 0.35 | $11.55 |
| 07-31 10:31 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 1? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.05 |
| 07-31 07:59 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 37°C on August 1? | BUY | 0.15 | $6.90 |
| 07-31 07:17 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 1? | BUY | 0.31 | $9.92 |
| 07-29 11:15 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 29? | SELL | 0.17 | $14.28 |
| 07-29 03:33 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 29? | BUY | 0.58 | $48.72 |
| 07-28 14:36 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29? | BUY | 0.29 | $2.90 |
| 07-28 13:49 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 29? | BUY | 0.3 | $18.00 |
| 07-28 13:48 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 29? | BUY | 0.35 | $8.75 |
| 07-28 13:05 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 29? | BUY | 0.23 | $16.10 |