Fate--Caster
0xb5d13be0954e21fbb9c990bb3cde62d41f2e505e
- Realised P&L
- $95.37
- Volume
- $18.1k
- Markets traded
- 443
- Open portfolio
- $47.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded443
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.39at 0.067Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 30?
- +$24.04at 0.068Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 30?
- +$22.26at 0.047Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 29?
- +$19.01at 0.020Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 29?
- +$15.63at 0.211Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 17:30 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.058 | $1.08 |
| 11-01 17:24 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.35 | $2.80 |
| 11-01 17:23 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.013 | $0.36 |
| 11-01 17:21 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.42 |
| 11-01 17:12 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.02 |
| 11-01 17:06 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.77 | $3.85 |
| 11-01 16:39 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 14:12 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.02 |
| 11-01 12:27 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.92 | $4.60 |
| 11-01 09:05 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or higher on November 1? | BUY | 0.018 | $0.15 |
| 11-01 08:59 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.015 | $0.15 |
| 11-01 08:57 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.76 |
| 11-01 08:48 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.34 |
| 11-01 08:47 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.34 |
| 11-01 08:46 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.041 | $0.82 |