0x1cF5E5B16dF7F2b214786ca7d70686F84B77d52a-1774017685968
0xb5ce69a21908fb238838c636f6246b628536a737
- Realised P&L
- $-41.44
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $115.67
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.915 | $107.97 | +$31.27 |
| Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? · No | 0.200 | 0.110 | $7.70 | −$6.30 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET · Up | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET · Up | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? · Yes | 0.149 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.96 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? · Yes | 0.215 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.30 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Argentina | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.00at 0.670Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?
- +$5.68at 0.477Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
- +$2.99at 0.901Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 15, 2026?
- +$2.57at 0.855Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET
- +$0.99at 0.410Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 17:52 | Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 10-31 17:34 | Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.33 | $4.03 |
| 10-28 13:24 | Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $76.70 |
| 10-15 16:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET | BUY | 0.449999964 | $5.00 |
| 10-15 16:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET | BUY | 0.4599999669 | $5.00 |
| 10-15 16:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 16:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET | BUY | 0.8399999933 | $5.00 |
| 10-15 16:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET | BUY | 0.8199999967 | $5.00 |
| 10-15 16:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET | BUY | 0.8799999859 | $5.00 |
| 10-14 13:02 | Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $18.90 |
| 10-14 13:02 | Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $8.10 |
| 10-01 07:54 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? | SELL | 0.5100454545 | $5.61 |
| 10-01 05:48 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? | BUY | 0.4 | $4.40 |
| 09-29 16:25 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.992 | $18.85 |
| 09-29 16:19 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $30.00 |