Astera
0xb5b8eb95db0c651af2b83fb804cc0b700ce5f0cb
- Realised P&L
- $58.6k
- Volume
- $3.90M
- Markets traded
- 151
- Open portfolio
- $34.7k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded151
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? · Yes | 0.911 | 0.915 | $16.0k | +$69.99 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes | 0.729 | 0.785 | $9.9k | +$702.70 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? · Yes | 0.952 | 0.954 | $8.4k | +$15.40 |
| Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election? · Yes | 0.709 | 0.675 | $377.28 | −$18.92 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.911 | 0.905 | $65.90 | −$0.42 |
| Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.650 | $33.71 | −$4.67 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.335 | $4.79 | −$0.36 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET · Up | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.90 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$405.60 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$327.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.0kat 0.423GOP wins popular vote by less than 1.5%?
- +$32.2kat 0.680Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?
- +$19.0kat 0.756Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$10.0kat 0.433Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
- +$8.8kat 0.680Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 00:16 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.951 | $50.00 |
| 10-11 00:09 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.954 | $9.79 |
| 10-10 21:00 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.9529999485 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 20:36 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.952 | $120.48 |
| 10-10 20:35 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.9522528278 | $8.2k |
| 10-10 01:03 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.9 | $56.29 |
| 10-09 21:32 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.6k |
| 10-09 21:32 | US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | SELL | 0.72 | $1.6k |
| 10-09 04:57 | US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | BUY | 0.73 | $1.4k |
| 10-09 01:14 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.9 | $13.8k |
| 10-08 04:27 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.92 | $5.10 |
| 10-07 18:58 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.92 | $9.21 |
| 10-07 18:57 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.92 | $14.1k |
| 10-07 18:55 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $5.0k |
| 10-07 03:23 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.72 | $6.4k |