Aswerty
0xb576c785282feb0ab1f157561614eae88de49d01
- Realised P&L
- $-2.13
- Volume
- $4.3k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $5.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.890 | 1.000 | $2.49 | +$0.27 |
| Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be less than 1250.00 at the end of December 2026? · No | 0.990 | 0.971 | $1.96 | −$0.04 |
| Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.940 | 1.000 | $1.13 | +$0.07 |
| Will The Williams Companies (WMB) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.57at 0.587Will Kamala Harris announce California Governor run in 2025?
- +$1.99at 0.700Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?
- +$1.92at 0.610Will the Chargers beat the Patriots by 5 or more points?
- +$0.90at 0.770Will Cierra win Season 7 of Love Island USA?
- +$0.40at 0.820Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-01 05:02 | Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.993 | $99.80 |
| 06-01 05:01 | Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.993 | $49.95 |
| 05-28 06:50 | Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.995 | $100.00 |
| 05-28 06:49 | Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.9939999999 | $50.00 |
| 03-30 08:32 | Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.991 | $140.14 |
| 03-30 08:32 | Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.998 | $119.88 |
| 03-27 12:50 | Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.99 | $140.00 |
| 03-27 12:49 | Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.999 | $120.00 |
| 02-03 06:14 | Will The Williams Companies (WMB) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 01-26 06:52 | Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be less than 1250.00 at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $2.00 |
| 12-20 06:52 | Will Keir Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 12-20 06:52 | Will Keir Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | SELL | 0.37 | $0.37 |
| 12-20 06:51 | Will Keir Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 11-22 06:03 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit $365 before 2026?? | BUY | 0.9889999901 | $1.00 |
| 11-22 06:03 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit $365 before 2026?? | SELL | 0.971 | $0.97 |