PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Substantial-Cord

0xb56dd7559c4abda88a66d980bc200285228f0d39

Realised P&L
$412.46
Volume
$33.4k
Markets traded
1,001
Open portfolio
$9.82

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded1,001
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration23.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration40.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.4930.625$3.99+$0.85
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" or "Deport" or "Deported" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? · Yes0.2890.255$2.07−$0.28
Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 23? · Yes0.0500.210$1.47+$1.12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes0.2080.115$0.81−$0.66
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? · Yes0.0670.075$0.44+$0.05
Will Trump say "America First" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? · Yes0.1800.225$0.34+$0.07
Will Trump's Midterm Rally in Georgia not air? · Yes0.0050.033$0.33+$0.28
2026 Balance of Power: Other · Yes0.0010.002$0.15+$0.05
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes0.8300.110$0.13−$0.87
Will Trump say "Trump Account" or "TrumpRX" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? · Yes0.0800.090$0.09+$0.01
Will Trump's remarks not air? · Yes0.0110.000$0.00−$0.08
Will Trump say "Latina" during his remarks at the Hispanic Heritage Month Celebration? · Yes0.4900.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Trump’s remarks not air? · Yes0.0270.000$0.00−$0.22
Will Trump say "Heaven" during Chinese State Banquet? · Yes0.5400.000$0.00−$2.75
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? · Yes0.1900.000$0.00−$1.33

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-15 18:34Will Trump say "Fentanyl" or "Deport" or "Deported" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?BUY0.32$1.00
10-15 16:13Will Trump say "America First" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?SELL0.17$0.94
10-15 15:24Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on October 23?BUY0.24$1.22
10-15 14:30Will Trump say "America First" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?BUY0.18$1.26
10-15 11:54Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?SELL0.55$3.35
10-14 21:24Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" 3+ times during his Midterm Rally in Montana?SELL0.23$0.23
10-14 21:04Will Trump say "Healthcare" 3+ times during his Midterm Rally in Montana?SELL0.65$0.72
10-14 20:43Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" 3+ times during his Midterm Rally in Arizona?SELL0.35$0.42
10-14 16:41Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?SELL0.16$0.88
10-14 05:59Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" 3+ times during his Midterm Rally in Arizona?BUY0.2$1.24
10-12 19:07Will Trump say "Shit" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?SELL0.57$1.99
10-12 18:23Will Trump's Midterm Rally in Ohio not air?SELL0.005$0.25
10-12 17:00Will Trump say "Aluminum" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?SELL0.23$1.38
10-12 16:44Will the Republican Party win the GA-12 House seat?SELL0.1$0.55
10-12 16:12Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?SELL0.14$0.70