0xb5327f848d8020e0b72b583cb18f7c67df768577
0xb5327f848d8020e0b72b583cb18f7c67df768577
- Realised P&L
- $744.00
- Volume
- $164.1k
- Markets traded
- 2,378
- Open portfolio
- $13.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,378
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration41.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on September 25? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.997 | $7.82 | +$3.03 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on September 25? · Yes | 0.401 | 0.335 | $5.83 | −$1.15 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on September 25? · Yes | 0.102 | 0.001 | $0.02 | −$4.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$142.74at 0.403Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 12?
- +$132.61at 0.070Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 1?
- +$123.76at 0.016Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 17?
- +$120.55at 0.035Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 22?
- +$114.44at 0.004Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on February 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 12:31 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.42 | $2.10 |
| 09-25 12:31 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.41 | $2.05 |
| 09-25 12:31 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.4199 | $2.10 |
| 09-24 16:09 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on September 24? | SELL | 0.71 | $4.91 |
| 09-24 02:15 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.92 |
| 09-23 18:32 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on September 23? | SELL | 0.41 | $1.61 |
| 09-23 18:25 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on September 23? | SELL | 0.72 | $4.37 |
| 09-23 18:25 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on September 23? | SELL | 0.65 | $6.16 |
| 09-23 11:44 | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.934 | $4.88 |
| 09-23 10:17 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.97 | $4.94 |
| 09-23 02:56 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.4 | $4.86 |
| 09-22 16:42 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on September 22? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.37 |
| 09-22 16:12 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on September 22? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.01 |
| 09-22 14:53 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on September 22? | SELL | 0.1570918367 | $0.92 |
| 09-22 14:35 | Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 22? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.00 |