0xb50f7992f3afcb66ca01b526a9537d6020ea7aee
0xb50f7992f3afcb66ca01b526a9537d6020ea7aee
- Realised P&L
- $-10.82
- Volume
- $128.51
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $4.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,020 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.520 | 0.968 | $1.86 | +$0.86 |
| Will Meta (META) close at $730-$740 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.245 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 16? · Up | 0.600 | 0.610 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.575 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.032 | $0.07 | −$0.93 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.66at 0.359Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31?
- +$2.00at 0.341Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?
- +$1.86at 0.356Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?
- +$1.44at 0.530Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?
- +$1.22at 0.450Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 14, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 03:49 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 19:10 | Will Meta (META) close at $730-$740 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 18:23 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 09:47 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 01:35 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 17:34 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 21:22 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,020 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 13:22 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:45 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:44 | Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.3469999254 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 11:25 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 02:41 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 18:41 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 12:09 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 04:06 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.1M and 7.2M in August? | BUY | 0.3099999954 | $2.00 |