420B137
0xb4fb61524078c01d15c4f35f069d32f6198f7f7b
- Realised P&L
- $-8.01
- Volume
- $4.3k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $187.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$197.69at 0.351GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
- +$125.30at 0.377Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?
- +$100.93at 0.666Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?
- +$75.94at 0.640Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?
- +$48.00at 0.610Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 12:42 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15? | BUY | 0.8139263506 | $87.40 |
| 09-13 12:30 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $40.39 |
| 08-22 06:24 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.4007309921 | $34.63 |
| 08-22 06:23 | Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.2375 | $19.00 |
| 08-22 06:22 | Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.1649999911 | $13.00 |
| 07-27 22:12 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6312757687 | $150.00 |
| 06-29 03:27 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.8052312894 | $176.00 |
| 06-06 08:05 | Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? | BUY | 0.3333287937 | $35.00 |
| 06-06 08:05 | Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? | BUY | 0.5333967157 | $60.00 |
| 05-02 04:46 | Will "ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival? | BUY | 0.1207142783 | $13.00 |
| 05-02 04:44 | Will "HOPE by NA Hong-jin" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival? | BUY | 0.1987999711 | $22.00 |
| 05-02 04:42 | Will "SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival? | BUY | 0.2685714249 | $35.00 |
| 04-16 23:11 | Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m? | BUY | 0.64 | $135.00 |
| 04-16 23:10 | Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? | SELL | 0.9213896167 | $189.19 |
| 03-23 03:00 | Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $154.00 |