0xb4e17912cd497d97afe3c12f8395e4a991a8a8a0
0xb4e17912cd497d97afe3c12f8395e4a991a8a8a0
- Realised P&L
- $-4.15
- Volume
- $148.75
- Markets traded
- 71
- Open portfolio
- $3.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded71
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.380 | 0.950 | $2.50 | +$1.50 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.590 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? · No | 0.800 | 0.043 | $0.05 | −$0.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.97at 0.258Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 Week of October 12 2026?
- +$2.33at 0.306Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ?
- +$2.31at 0.308Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$1.38at 0.426Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?
- +$1.36at 0.430Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 18:25 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 09:55 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 01:12 | Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 04:55 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 20:48 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 11:28 | Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 23:41 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 03:38 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 16:12 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:23 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 07:33 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 2? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 01:43 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.69999972 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 15:45 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $150 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 05:27 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $185 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 21:26 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |