0xb4cefc5909430280d22780345ad0334e95be6bc2
0xb4cefc5909430280d22780345ad0334e95be6bc2
- Realised P&L
- $-81.74
- Volume
- $3.0k
- Markets traded
- 163
- Open portfolio
- $50.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded163
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 1.000 | $21.35 | +$16.65 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $365 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.935 | $5.78 | +$1.08 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.885 | $5.55 | +$0.85 |
| Will Costco say "Dividend" during earnings call? · No | 0.430 | 0.425 | $4.65 | −$0.05 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 26, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.230 | $4.50 | −$0.20 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.580 | $4.19 | −$0.51 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.600 | $4.09 | −$0.61 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$54.44at 0.164Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?
- +$37.22at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$28.26at 0.256Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?
- +$22.38at 0.306Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5
- +$19.50at 0.349Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 15:20 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999918 | $4.70 |
| 09-23 07:19 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999723 | $4.70 |
| 09-22 23:15 | Will Costco say "Dividend" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.4299999826 | $4.70 |
| 09-22 14:51 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 22? | BUY | 0.4799999837 | $4.70 |
| 09-22 06:42 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.689999975 | $4.70 |
| 09-21 22:19 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.6599999635 | $4.70 |
| 09-21 14:18 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999934 | $4.70 |
| 09-21 06:10 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999851 | $4.70 |
| 09-20 22:03 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $365 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999871 | $4.70 |
| 09-20 12:54 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999571 | $4.70 |
| 09-20 04:16 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.75 | $4.70 |
| 09-19 20:15 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.6999999702 | $4.70 |
| 09-19 10:41 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7499999601 | $4.70 |
| 09-19 02:40 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999137 | $2.21 |
| 09-18 15:16 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 18? | BUY | 0.6599999258 | $1.78 |