hglportfolio2
0xb4ad15d9590ee4ebf7780ef76b13d290671ad0f3
- Realised P&L
- $-687.86
- Volume
- $78.8k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November? · No | 0.840 | 0.825 | $297.82 | −$5.41 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in November? · No | 0.779 | 0.735 | $286.39 | −$17.03 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in November? · No | 0.916 | 0.915 | $247.05 | −$0.35 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? · No | 0.850 | 0.865 | $215.38 | +$3.74 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in November? · No | 0.949 | 0.950 | $199.60 | +$0.11 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in November? · No | 0.930 | 0.915 | $198.56 | −$3.25 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in November? · No | 0.870 | 0.855 | $198.36 | −$3.48 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in November? · No | 0.830 | 0.790 | $189.60 | −$9.60 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October? · No | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$197.59 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$267.62 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.51 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$201.90at 0.456Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in October?
- +$80.91at 0.792Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?
- +$34.76at 0.897Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?
- +$32.59at 0.859Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?
- +$28.32at 0.878Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in October?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 19:50 | Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in November? | BUY | 0.92 | $156.40 |
| 11-02 19:35 | Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in November? | BUY | 0.91 | $45.50 |
| 11-02 19:20 | Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in November? | BUY | 0.91 | $45.50 |
| 11-02 18:35 | Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in November? | BUY | 0.9489999999 | $199.50 |
| 11-02 13:25 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? | BUY | 0.85 | $211.65 |
| 11-02 13:15 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November? | BUY | 0.84 | $303.24 |
| 11-02 13:00 | Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in November? | BUY | 0.7787167669 | $303.42 |
| 11-02 09:45 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in November? | BUY | 0.87 | $201.84 |
| 11-02 09:30 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in November? | BUY | 0.93 | $201.81 |
| 10-31 07:11 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October? | SELL | 0.985 | $218.67 |
| 10-30 10:00 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? | SELL | 0.0046789758 | $26.31 |
| 10-30 10:00 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? | SELL | 0.0010226031 | $2.26 |
| 10-30 09:45 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.39 |
| 10-30 09:30 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? | SELL | 0.008 | $2.80 |
| 10-30 09:15 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? | SELL | 0.009 | $2.56 |