vad1
0xb476d52d74d0ecd55fb80f9bc96e93a267ad6eac
- Realised P&L
- $-26.1k
- Volume
- $3.00M
- Markets traded
- 2,208
- Open portfolio
- $560.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,208
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration18.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.8kat 0.368Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?
- +$8.8kat 0.596Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?
- +$6.6kat 0.131Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 2.5
- +$5.9kat 0.416Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
- +$4.8kat 0.306Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 11:07 | Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET | BUY | 0.9446927371 | $89.00 |
| 09-18 11:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET | BUY | 0.8311232287 | $266.00 |
| 09-18 08:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET | BUY | 0.8962025316 | $177.00 |
| 09-18 07:07 | Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET | BUY | 0.9547776869 | $89.00 |
| 09-18 05:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET | BUY | 0.94 | $181.22 |
| 09-18 03:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET | BUY | 0.9 | $89.00 |
| 09-18 03:18 | Ethereum Up or Down - September 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET | BUY | 0.9446916813 | $89.00 |
| 09-18 00:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET | BUY | 0.9503893206 | $89.00 |
| 09-18 00:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET | BUY | 0.93 | $200.00 |
| 09-17 21:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET | BUY | 0.8099999993 | $200.00 |
| 09-17 21:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET | BUY | 0.9299999998 | $89.00 |
| 09-17 18:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.91 | $200.00 |
| 09-17 13:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET | BUY | 0.94 | $89.00 |
| 09-17 13:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | BUY | 0.8616689537 | $200.00 |
| 09-17 13:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | BUY | 0.92 | $200.00 |