0xb45827260e2651d6a223ed88f903355b898cc5fe
- Realised P&L
- $1.51
- Volume
- $511.00
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $50.07
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration46.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.936 | $29.02 | +$10.42 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.932 | 0.964 | $8.68 | +$0.29 |
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.885 | $7.96 | +$3.46 |
| Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.224 | 0.095 | $3.33 | −$4.50 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.065 | $0.58 | −$0.58 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.075 | $0.38 | −$0.72 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.025 | $0.13 | −$0.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.93at 0.155Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.36at 0.190Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?
- +$0.30at 0.780Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
- +$0.25at 0.730Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
- +$0.15at 0.932Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 17:46 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $2.09 |
| 06-25 10:56 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.518 | $4.14 |
| 06-20 00:35 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.483 | $2.42 |
| 06-12 20:50 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.932 | $8.39 |
| 06-08 09:52 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | SELL | 0.78 | $4.68 |
| 06-01 12:44 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.925 | $4.63 |
| 06-01 12:44 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.77 | $8.47 |
| 06-01 12:43 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.23 | $5.52 |
| 05-25 02:01 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.17 |
| 05-22 22:09 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $5.53 |
| 05-22 22:09 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $2.31 |
| 05-22 22:09 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.963 | $5.78 |
| 05-22 22:08 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.932 | $4.66 |
| 05-22 22:08 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.386 | $1.93 |
| 04-19 03:27 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.898 | $8.08 |