PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xb45827260e2651d6a223ed88f903355b898cc5fe

Realised P&L
$1.51
Volume
$511.00
Markets traded
15
Open portfolio
$50.07

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded15
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration46.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample15 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration58.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · No0.6000.936$29.02+$10.42
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No0.9320.964$8.68+$0.29
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? · No0.5000.885$7.96+$3.46
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.2240.095$3.33$4.50
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.1300.065$0.58$0.58
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes0.2200.075$0.38$0.72
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2100.025$0.13$0.92

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-02 17:46Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.19$2.09
06-25 10:56Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.518$4.14
06-20 00:35Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.483$2.42
06-12 20:50Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?BUY0.932$8.39
06-08 09:52Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?SELL0.78$4.68
06-01 12:44Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?BUY0.925$4.63
06-01 12:44Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.77$8.47
06-01 12:43Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.23$5.52
05-25 02:01Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.13$1.17
05-22 22:09Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.79$5.53
05-22 22:09Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.21$2.31
05-22 22:09Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?BUY0.963$5.78
05-22 22:08Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?BUY0.932$4.66
05-22 22:08Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?BUY0.386$1.93
04-19 03:27Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?BUY0.898$8.08