PM666
0xb42b2fceb73c5ac90595a8339926755bbbe2afe0
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $2.48M
- Markets traded
- 685
- Open portfolio
- $26.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded685
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 on October 6? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.150 | $15.75 | −$66.15 |
| Will Robinhood Chain launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.097 | 0.028 | $3.68 | −$9.08 |
| Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.121 | $3.02 | +$0.33 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.050 | $2.72 | −$15.78 |
| Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.053 | $1.59 | −$0.21 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.0kat 0.143Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?
- +$10.8kat 0.143Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?
- +$7.2kat 0.052Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
- +$4.5kat 0.100Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 17?
- +$4.5kat 0.100Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 06:06 | Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 on October 6? | BUY | 0.78 | $81.90 |
| 09-27 07:58 | Will Ethereum reach $2,750 on September 27? | BUY | 0.49 | $24.50 |
| 09-27 07:58 | Will Ethereum reach $2,800 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.80 |
| 09-22 14:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on September 22? | BUY | 0.49 | $2.45 |
| 09-22 14:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on September 22? | BUY | 0.49 | $4.90 |
| 09-22 14:57 | Will Bitcoin reach $89,000 on September 22? | BUY | 0.028 | $2.80 |
| 09-22 14:57 | Will Bitcoin reach $89,000 on September 22? | BUY | 0.027 | $21.60 |
| 09-22 05:20 | Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 on September 22? | BUY | 0.93 | $6.51 |
| 09-21 14:37 | Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on September 21? | SELL | 0.9490675944 | $9.55 |
| 09-21 13:52 | Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on September 21? | BUY | 0.904 | $9.09 |
| 09-21 12:58 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 on September 21? | BUY | 0.019 | $2.47 |
| 09-21 00:21 | Will Ethereum reach $2,750 on September 20? | BUY | 0.097 | $1.61 |
| 09-21 00:20 | Will Ethereum reach $2,700 on September 20? | BUY | 0.77 | $16.74 |
| 09-21 00:16 | Will Ethereum reach $2,700 on September 20? | BUY | 0.516 | $5.34 |
| 09-21 00:15 | Will Ethereum reach $2,700 on September 20? | BUY | 0.515 | $12.51 |