0xb429f0045cdc48bdae1c3f57d674bab429e48e28
0xb429f0045cdc48bdae1c3f57d674bab429e48e28
- Realised P&L
- $-55.97
- Volume
- $13.3k
- Markets traded
- 100
- Open portfolio
- $23.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded100
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Kansas? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.730 | $7.89 | −$0.11 |
| Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? · Yes | 0.069 | 0.049 | $4.96 | −$2.02 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.029 | $2.85 | −$7.15 |
| Will Trump say "Biden" or "Kamala" or "Obama" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Kansas? · No | 0.150 | 0.135 | $2.70 | −$0.30 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.285 | $2.25 | −$0.75 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.040 | $1.39 | −$4.61 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.125 | $1.01 | −$3.99 |
| SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.021 | $0.62 | −$0.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$61.95at 0.109Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?
- +$14.66at 0.474Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
- +$10.00at 0.580Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?
- +$7.26at 0.358Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?
- +$6.09at 0.240US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 03:55 | Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Kansas? | BUY | 0.7399999457 | $3.00 |
| 10-19 03:54 | Will Trump say "Biden" or "Kamala" or "Obama" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Kansas? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.00 |
| 10-19 03:54 | Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Kansas? | BUY | 0.7399999734 | $5.00 |
| 08-06 01:29 | Will Trump say "Garbage" in August? | BUY | 0.5499998791 | $1.82 |
| 08-06 01:28 | Will Trump say "Six Seven" in August? | BUY | 0.3899999558 | $3.00 |
| 08-06 01:28 | Will Trump say "Green New Scam" in August? | BUY | 0.4199999272 | $3.00 |
| 08-06 01:28 | Will Trump say "Ass" in August? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 01:28 | Will Trump say "No No No" in August? | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 16:50 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.00 |
| 08-03 00:58 | SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? | BUY | 0.0329999684 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 00:56 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.0149999854 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 21:28 | Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | BUY | 0.599999976 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 21:27 | Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? | SELL | 0.9975 | $4.86 |
| 07-19 20:43 | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Argentina? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 20:23 | Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.4099999446 | $2.00 |