Poligarch
0xb40e89677d59665d5188541ad860450a6e2a7cc9
- Realised P&L
- $182.4k
- Volume
- $26.23M
- Markets traded
- 42,699
- Open portfolio
- $51.5k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded42,699
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- ClearProfit concentration24.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration5.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.6kat 0.153Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
- +$9.1kat 0.132Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
- +$7.9kat 0.165Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange?
- +$7.8kat 0.888Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
- +$6.9kat 0.268US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-07 04:12 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.978 | $17.5k |
| 07-05 07:54 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.61 | $61.00 |
| 07-05 07:54 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 07-05 07:53 | United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5 | $50.00 |
| 07-05 07:51 | Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.46 | $46.00 |
| 07-04 16:38 | Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.72 | $36.00 |
| 06-30 01:47 | Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.65 | $65.00 |
| 06-30 01:15 | Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4 | $40.00 |
| 06-30 01:15 | Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.43 | $43.00 |
| 06-23 03:59 | Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.66 | $58.81 |
| 06-23 03:05 | Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.87 | $87.00 |
| 06-23 03:03 | Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4 | $40.00 |
| 06-23 03:00 | Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.78 | $78.00 |
| 06-23 02:58 | Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.45 | $45.00 |
| 06-23 02:55 | Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.77 | $77.00 |