Poligarch
0xb40e89677d59665d5188541ad860450a6e2a7cc9
- Realised P&L
- $200.8k
- Volume
- $28.69M
- Markets traded
- 52,210
- Open portfolio
- $143.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded52,210
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- ClearProfit concentration13.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.1kat 0.132Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
- +$7.9kat 0.165Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange?
- +$7.8kat 0.888Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
- +$7.2kat 0.152Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
- +$6.9kat 0.268US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 08:39 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.41 | $12.30 |
| 09-18 08:36 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.45 | $9.00 |
| 09-18 08:35 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.45 | $22.50 |
| 09-18 08:35 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.3 | $3.00 |
| 09-18 08:35 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.4 | $4.00 |
| 09-18 08:35 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.4 | $8.00 |
| 09-18 08:14 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.99 | $0.50 |
| 09-18 08:12 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.74 | $14.80 |
| 09-18 08:12 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.9 | $18.00 |
| 09-18 08:06 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.38 | $3.80 |
| 09-18 08:05 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.35 | $17.13 |
| 09-18 08:00 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.87 | $8.70 |
| 09-18 07:59 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.52 | $26.00 |
| 09-18 07:56 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.45 | $4.50 |
| 09-18 07:55 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.45 | $4.50 |