PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

Poligarch

0xb40e89677d59665d5188541ad860450a6e2a7cc9

Realised P&L
$200.8k
Volume
$28.69M
Markets traded
52,210
Open portfolio
$143.3k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded52,210
Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
ClearProfit concentration13.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration6.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · Yes0.6241.000$1.2k+$465.97
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No0.5911.000$1.2k+$479.74
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? · No0.7781.000$864.91+$191.64
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 28? · No0.6321.000$805.62+$296.34
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026? · Yes0.4581.000$649.33+$352.04
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · No0.7651.000$643.33+$150.96
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 20? · No0.7611.000$616.70+$147.05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September? · Yes0.9131.000$586.78+$50.89
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026? · No0.5241.000$518.23+$246.57
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 15? · No0.7301.000$505.69+$136.56
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 27? · No0.7951.000$453.56+$93.10
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 2? · No0.7251.000$453.30+$124.72
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 21? · Yes0.5001.000$427.78+$213.91
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 18? · No0.8811.000$418.91+$49.80
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 16? · Yes0.9421.000$412.54+$23.77

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-18 08:39Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 19?BUY0.41$12.30
09-18 08:36Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on September 18?BUY0.45$9.00
09-18 08:35Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on September 18?BUY0.45$22.50
09-18 08:35Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on September 19?BUY0.3$3.00
09-18 08:35Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 19?BUY0.4$4.00
09-18 08:35Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 19?BUY0.4$8.00
09-18 08:14Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on September 18?BUY0.99$0.50
09-18 08:12Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 19?BUY0.74$14.80
09-18 08:12Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 19?BUY0.9$18.00
09-18 08:06Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 18?BUY0.38$3.80
09-18 08:05Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 18?BUY0.35$17.13
09-18 08:00Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 19?BUY0.87$8.70
09-18 07:59Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on September 18?BUY0.52$26.00
09-18 07:56Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on September 18?BUY0.45$4.50
09-18 07:55Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on September 18?BUY0.45$4.50
Trader Poligarch · PolyBot Pro