0xb4052aa8C989dA56E013450ce488C1e47bdc53F3-1749435278535
0xb4052aa8c989da56e013450ce488c1e47bdc53f3
- Realised P&L
- $-72.40
- Volume
- $12.9k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $15.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-10-12? · No | 0.560 | 0.585 | $15.50 | +$0.66 |
| Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.40 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.95 |
| LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage · HANJIN BRION | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.51 |
| Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-08-14? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.12 |
| Valorant: Trace Esports vs Unsettled Resentment (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 3 Playoffs · Trace Esports | 0.800 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.83 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$446.40at 0.500Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$157.05at 0.500Will Félix González win the Chilean presidential election?
- +$156.87at 0.500Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting?
- +$154.88at 0.500Will Derek Gee win the Tour de France 2025?
- +$146.32at 0.500Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 07:47 | Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-10-12? | BUY | 0.56 | $14.84 |
| 09-16 06:58 | Commanders vs. Cowboys | BUY | 0.66 | $13.20 |
| 09-04 08:50 | Valorant: Trace Esports vs Unsettled Resentment (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 3 Playoffs | BUY | 0.8 | $33.83 |
| 08-14 07:02 | Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-08-14? | BUY | 0.31 | $16.12 |
| 08-07 06:58 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.56 | $15.68 |
| 07-20 02:52 | LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage | BUY | 0.47 | $15.51 |
| 07-06 11:32 | Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.23 | $14.95 |
| 06-23 12:04 | Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.34 |
| 06-23 12:04 | Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.68 | $33.12 |
| 06-23 12:03 | Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.992 | $47.62 |
| 06-06 02:48 | UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, Prelims) | BUY | 0.61 | $16.65 |
| 05-21 02:15 | Will Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? | SELL | 0.998 | $64.93 |
| 05-21 02:15 | Will Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? | BUY | 0.999 | $65.00 |
| 05-21 02:14 | Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? | BUY | 0.23 | $16.40 |
| 04-20 06:35 | Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $67.86 |