rando12345
0xb401123e33dbbe1d575c4ee4f30c714a2819df2a
- Realised P&L
- $14.0k
- Volume
- $1.90M
- Markets traded
- 480
- Open portfolio
- $61.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded480
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.0kat 0.551Ethereum all time high by September 30?
- +$4.4kat 0.573Will Ethereum reach $5000 August 25–31?
- +$3.1kat 0.035Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?
- +$3.1kat 0.995Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
- +$2.6kat 0.500Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 04:15 | Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30 and $2.40 in September? | BUY | 0.76 | $76.00 |
| 09-15 18:58 | USDTb depeg by December 31? | BUY | 0.69 | $13.80 |
| 09-15 00:10 | Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $4.90 |
| 09-14 20:47 | Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $361.34 |
| 09-14 10:27 | Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in September? | BUY | 0.1886665778 | $28.30 |
| 09-12 15:48 | Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00 and $2.10 in September? | SELL | 0.979 | $20.56 |
| 09-12 14:33 | Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50 and $2.60 in September? | BUY | 0.92 | $216.20 |
| 09-12 14:31 | PYUSD depeg by December 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $142.50 |
| 09-12 14:31 | PYUSD depeg by December 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $103.75 |
| 09-12 14:30 | USDS depeg by December 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $19.00 |
| 09-12 14:30 | USDE depeg by December 31? | BUY | 0.958 | $19.16 |
| 09-12 14:30 | USDE depeg by December 31? | BUY | 0.953 | $19.06 |
| 09-12 14:30 | USDE depeg by December 31? | BUY | 0.9455 | $37.82 |
| 09-12 14:30 | PYUSD depeg by December 31? | BUY | 0.93 | $83.04 |
| 09-12 14:29 | USDTb depeg by December 31? | BUY | 0.6464456722 | $21.06 |