PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

mrj74-sthlm

0xb3fac6e8dce2ad5334175b811cd62a54ffc73571

Realised P&L
$-79.97
Volume
$8.4k
Markets traded
30
Open portfolio
$33.38

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded30
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration41.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample13 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)46.2%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration36.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.5100.625$12.25+$2.25
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · Yes0.1200.095$9.50−$2.50
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes0.0020.016$8.00+$7.00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.0900.065$3.61−$1.39
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Poland? · Yes0.0430.001$0.02−$1.34
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1120.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1740.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Moderate Party (M) win less than 16% of all valid votes? · Yes0.1920.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0070.000$0.00−$10.00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? · Yes0.0500.000$0.00−$10.00
Will AIK win on 2026-09-07? · Yes0.2300.000$0.00−$10.00
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00−$10.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET · Up0.5100.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? · Yes0.0570.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? · Yes0.0100.000$0.00−$5.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-28 13:02Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Poland?BUY0.043$1.35
09-18 10:30Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?BUY0.12$12.00
09-16 15:40Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.119999999$10.00
09-14 14:17Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?BUY0.002$1.00
09-13 18:19Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win at least 33% of all valid votes?SELL0.0047820305$1.03
09-12 23:31Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ETBUY0.5099999776$5.00
09-12 23:29Will Moderate Party (M) win less than 16% of all valid votes?BUY0.1699999983$5.00
09-09 22:18Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?SELL0.0111292769$1.29
09-09 16:29Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?BUY0.0899999993$5.00
09-09 16:25Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?SELL0.0553248071$9.54
09-09 09:28Trump out as President before 2027?SELL0.05$5.58
09-09 09:23Will Moderate Party (M) win less than 16% of all valid votes?BUY0.2199999974$5.00
09-09 08:45Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?SELL0.07$7.78
09-09 00:02Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?BUY0.0430904468$5.00
09-08 22:49Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win at least 33% of all valid votes?BUY0.0762208193$5.00