mrj74-sthlm
0xb3fac6e8dce2ad5334175b811cd62a54ffc73571
- Realised P&L
- $-79.97
- Volume
- $8.4k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $33.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.80at 0.210Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$13.09at 0.122Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 30% and 33% of all valid votes?
- +$7.50at 0.400Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26?
- +$1.64at 0.060Trump out as President by June 30?
- +$0.59at 0.313Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 13:02 | Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Poland? | BUY | 0.043 | $1.35 |
| 09-18 10:30 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.12 | $12.00 |
| 09-16 15:40 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.119999999 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 14:17 | Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 18:19 | Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win at least 33% of all valid votes? | SELL | 0.0047820305 | $1.03 |
| 09-12 23:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999776 | $5.00 |
| 09-12 23:29 | Will Moderate Party (M) win less than 16% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 22:18 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31? | SELL | 0.0111292769 | $1.29 |
| 09-09 16:29 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999993 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 16:25 | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.0553248071 | $9.54 |
| 09-09 09:28 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.05 | $5.58 |
| 09-09 09:23 | Will Moderate Party (M) win less than 16% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.2199999974 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 08:45 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | SELL | 0.07 | $7.78 |
| 09-09 00:02 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31? | BUY | 0.0430904468 | $5.00 |
| 09-08 22:49 | Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win at least 33% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.0762208193 | $5.00 |