0xb3df483638bAac2eFcAD02d65c9d9002CEe2463D-1782740741639
0xb3df483638baac2efcad02d65c9d9002cee2463d
- Realised P&L
- $55.56
- Volume
- $68.5k
- Markets traded
- 1,478
- Open portfolio
- $181.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,478
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration30.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 7? · No | 0.670 | 0.705 | $88.77 | +$4.41 |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 7? · No | 0.680 | 0.695 | $34.30 | +$0.74 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 7? · No | 0.700 | 0.715 | $25.34 | +$0.53 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 7? · Yes | 0.344 | 0.395 | $20.46 | +$2.66 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 7? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.265 | $6.89 | +$0.39 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 6? · No | 0.670 | 0.815 | $5.49 | +$0.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$295.70at 0.565Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10AM ET
- +$241.18at 0.482Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3PM ET
- +$236.08at 0.592Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 7PM ET
- +$182.48at 0.746Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5PM ET
- +$173.30at 0.606Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 7AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 18:29 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.6699999906 | $10.66 |
| 08-05 18:25 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.25 | $6.50 |
| 08-05 18:18 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.6799999959 | $33.56 |
| 08-05 18:17 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.3499999791 | $6.69 |
| 08-05 18:14 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.6699999792 | $4.51 |
| 08-05 18:11 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.3399999859 | $11.11 |
| 08-05 18:05 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.67 | $73.70 |
| 08-05 17:43 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET | SELL | 0.975520252 | $10.84 |
| 08-05 17:31 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.6999999944 | $24.81 |
| 08-05 16:30 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET | BUY | 0.9 | $10.00 |
| 08-05 15:39 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET | SELL | 0.95 | $10.43 |
| 08-05 15:14 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET | BUY | 0.91 | $10.00 |
| 08-05 15:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET | SELL | 0.94 | $10.44 |
| 08-05 14:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET | BUY | 0.9 | $10.00 |
| 08-05 11:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET | SELL | 0.95 | $10.21 |