0xb3c4B34ad0472d08e212BfC1aD726Cb3D47e8379-1734339593783
0xb3c4b34ad0472d08e212bfc1ad726cb3d47e8379
- Realised P&L
- $22.28
- Volume
- $7.3k
- Markets traded
- 72
- Open portfolio
- $86.05
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded72
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lydie Massard be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.998 | 0.998 | $35.10 | +$0.00 |
| Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.998 | 0.997 | $25.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 17? · Yes | 0.996 | 0.996 | $24.99 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.61at 0.660Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
- +$0.31at 0.997Will Alibaba have the top AI model on August 31?
- +$0.23at 0.994Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 17?
- +$0.20at 0.995Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?
- +$0.18at 0.993Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 15:16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 17? | BUY | 0.996 | $25.00 |
| 10-12 21:15 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $24.00 |
| 10-11 10:34 | Will Lydie Massard be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.998 | $35.10 |
| 10-09 10:09 | Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.998 | $26.00 |
| 10-05 23:35 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on October 7? | BUY | 0.998 | $34.00 |
| 10-04 06:57 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.997 | $20.00 |
| 10-02 01:14 | Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.997 | $50.30 |
| 09-29 14:50 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.9949999878 | $29.00 |
| 09-28 09:08 | Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September? | BUY | 0.9969999684 | $17.00 |
| 09-27 13:07 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.998 | $49.80 |
| 09-25 00:34 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 25? | BUY | 0.997 | $46.80 |
| 09-24 03:41 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 24? | BUY | 0.996 | $14.00 |
| 09-05 14:36 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.998 | $30.00 |
| 09-01 21:51 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $18.00 |
| 08-30 21:03 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $15.00 |