PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

99488104

0xb3b1d81a127f23360b62730326c0d3ba312aca43

Realised P&L
$-491.51
Volume
$26.7k
Markets traded
116
Open portfolio
$18.75

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded116
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration18.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration20.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0470.036$3.85−$1.15
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes0.2700.029$3.22−$26.78
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes0.1800.029$3.17−$16.83
Will XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0430.025$2.97−$2.03
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0400.051$2.55+$0.55
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0190.017$1.74−$0.26
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes0.2500.021$1.26−$13.74
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET · Up0.1400.000$0.00−$0.70
Exact Score: Any Other Score? · Yes0.0500.000$0.00−$15.00
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? · Yes0.0020.000$0.00−$1.00
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00−$10.00
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? · Yes0.0280.000$0.00−$10.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET · Down0.0470.000$0.00−$3.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET · Up0.0240.000$0.00−$2.60
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Argentina? · Yes0.0800.000$0.00−$10.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-30 18:48Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ETBUY0.01$1.00
09-30 18:48Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ETBUY0.0699999965$1.00
09-30 18:45Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ETBUY0.7899998657$1.00
09-23 06:18Will XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0429999999$5.00
09-23 06:17Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0474419977$5.00
08-22 07:02Will XRP reach $2.20 in August?BUY0.1013792725$15.00
08-21 14:40Will XRP reach $3.00 in August?BUY0.0055452865$1.00
08-21 14:38Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.021$1.50
08-21 14:36Will XRP reach $1.80 in August?BUY0.1158528622$20.00
08-21 14:35Will XRP reach $1.60 in August?BUY0.3859999919$20.00
08-20 06:12Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ETBUY0.1399999727$4.00
08-20 06:09Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ETBUY0.02$1.00
08-20 06:07Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ETBUY0.14999994$2.00
08-19 21:51Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ETBUY0.6599999296$3.00
08-19 21:37Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ETBUY0.1899999373$2.00