0xb396993aed1f8ff1b9c8307a46961a0c1f81e48e
0xb396993aed1f8ff1b9c8307a46961a0c1f81e48e
- Realised P&L
- $-3.45
- Volume
- $259.13
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $4.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.320 | $1.45 | +$0.45 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $115 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.420 | $1.27 | +$0.27 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.825 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.680 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · No | 0.330 | 0.016 | $0.05 | −$0.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.06at 0.227Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?
- +$5.88at 0.412Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$4.00at 0.500US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$3.51at 0.298Will Apple say "iCloud" during earnings call?
- +$3.37at 0.552Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 06:32 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 10:17 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $115 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 00:06 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 15:51 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 15:44 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 06:46 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 22:44 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 14:41 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 05:54 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 10:48 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.5 | $4.00 |
| 08-16 01:30 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999422 | $1.89 |
| 08-11 13:34 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.00 |
| 08-07 00:58 | Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999594 | $4.00 |
| 08-06 16:58 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999593 | $4.00 |
| 08-05 08:38 | Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%? | BUY | 0.5499999587 | $4.00 |