0xb38d80e4a3de29072a6ee0c75b36d5e5fba2758b
0xb38d80e4a3de29072a6ee0c75b36d5e5fba2758b
- Realised P&L
- $-13.29
- Volume
- $1.0k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $15.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.725 | $5.33 | +$0.33 |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.680 | 0.715 | $5.26 | +$0.26 |
| Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.079 | $4.95 | −$2.05 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET · Down | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET · Down | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET · Down | 0.203 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET · Down | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET · Up | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET · Down | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET · Down | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.13at 0.329Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
- +$5.73at 0.508Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
- +$3.35at 0.499Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
- +$2.04at 0.545Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
- +$1.77at 0.578Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 22:36 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | SELL | 0.78 | $11.30 |
| 09-25 15:29 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? | SELL | 0.044 | $1.28 |
| 09-23 15:13 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? | BUY | 0.0689999982 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 21:00 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999728 | $5.00 |
| 09-22 21:00 | Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999728 | $5.00 |
| 09-22 07:13 | Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? | BUY | 0.1149999997 | $5.00 |
| 09-22 01:10 | Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? | BUY | 0.1020236337 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 00:44 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | BUY | 0.6899999821 | $10.00 |
| 09-22 00:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 00:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET | SELL | 0.33 | $1.57 |
| 09-22 00:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 00:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET | BUY | 0.0899999928 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 00:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET | BUY | 0.549999945 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 00:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET | SELL | 0.64 | $2.28 |
| 09-22 00:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |