caviaro
0xb36b96950b467e10fd4f5504fd659ec9961e7804
- Realised P&L
- $5.8k
- Volume
- $30.42M
- Markets traded
- 878
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded878
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.079Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$373.15at 0.001Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
- +$371.83at 0.001Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?
- +$338.29at 0.001Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
- +$273.07at 0.001Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 16:39 | Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15? | BUY | 0.599999976 | $5.00 |
| 09-12 15:19 | Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.037 | $17.27 |
| 09-07 16:52 | Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.001 | $22.40 |
| 09-05 14:06 | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.001 | $21.58 |
| 08-28 17:25 | Will the Centre Party (C) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.79 |
| 08-28 17:25 | Will the Liberals (L) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.24 |
| 08-21 14:04 | Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.30 |
| 08-19 17:40 | Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.20 |
| 08-19 17:37 | Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.20 |
| 08-19 17:35 | Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.05 |
| 08-19 17:29 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.302390743 | $252.97 |
| 08-08 18:31 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9? | SELL | 0.49 | $6.03 |
| 08-08 18:22 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5499999807 | $10.00 |
| 08-08 18:15 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9? | SELL | 0.4910524931 | $37.32 |
| 08-08 18:03 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.50 |