PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

caviaro

0xb36b96950b467e10fd4f5504fd659ec9961e7804

Realised P&L
$5.8k
Volume
$30.42M
Markets traded
878
Open portfolio
$1.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded878
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration15.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration9.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.0010.001$155.70$145.71
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.0010.001$140.05$140.05
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.0010.001$137.74$127.64
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.0010.001$119.70$119.66
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0010.001$108.75$108.75
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0010.001$100.00$100.00
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.0010.001$96.72$96.72
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.0010.001$94.00$94.00
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.0010.001$89.85$89.85
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0010.001$79.26$79.26
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.0010.001$74.93$74.93
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.0010.001$69.99$69.99
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0010.001$67.97$67.97
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.0010.001$54.85$54.85
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0010.001$43.87$43.87

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-15 16:39Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15?BUY0.599999976$5.00
09-12 15:19Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.037$17.27
09-07 16:52Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL0.001$22.40
09-05 14:06Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.001$21.58
08-28 17:25Will the Centre Party (C) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?SELL0.001$0.79
08-28 17:25Will the Liberals (L) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?SELL0.001$0.24
08-21 14:04Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.001$0.30
08-19 17:40Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.001$0.20
08-19 17:37Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.001$0.20
08-19 17:35Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL0.001$0.05
08-19 17:29Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.302390743$252.97
08-08 18:31Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9?SELL0.49$6.03
08-08 18:22Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY0.5499999807$10.00
08-08 18:15Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9?SELL0.4910524931$37.32
08-08 18:03Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9?BUY0.5$2.50