0xb305d384400e3d7A15780216a55368EA17372
0xb305d384400e3d7a15780216a55368ea677eca4e
- Realised P&L
- $88.7k
- Volume
- $2.75M
- Markets traded
- 4,123
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- CautionMarkets traded4,123
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration14.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.490 | $1.4k | −$111.94 |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.347 | 0.230 | $619.99 | −$316.86 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.877 | $8.77 | −$0.73 |
| Decibel FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.445 | $4.45 | −$2.75 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.249 | 0.335 | $3.35 | +$0.86 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No | 0.459 | 0.710 | $3.09 | +$1.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.2kat 0.277Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
- +$1.7kat 0.373Spurs vs. Thunder
- +$1.6kat 0.348Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
- +$1.6kat 0.575Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
- +$1.6kat 0.392Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-11 02:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET | BUY | 0.17 | $7.71 |
| 07-11 02:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET | BUY | 0.12 | $12.00 |
| 07-11 02:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET | BUY | 0.14 | $14.00 |
| 07-11 02:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET | BUY | 0.48 | $96.00 |
| 07-11 02:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET | BUY | 0.51 | $102.00 |
| 07-11 02:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $100.00 |
| 07-11 02:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET | BUY | 0.1295 | $12.95 |
| 07-11 02:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET | BUY | 0.53 | $53.00 |
| 07-11 02:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET | BUY | 0.4926014873 | $40.41 |
| 07-11 02:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET | BUY | 0.54 | $108.00 |
| 07-11 02:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET | BUY | 0.57 | $114.00 |
| 07-11 02:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET | BUY | 0.32 | $32.00 |
| 07-11 02:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET | BUY | 0.56 | $56.00 |
| 07-11 02:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET | BUY | 0.5561878453 | $102.68 |
| 07-11 02:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET | BUY | 0.61 | $61.00 |