happydog
0xb2e140abd9ebe6085021adb81d7cbfe89810cf05
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $391.6k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $50.61
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)11.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? · Yes | 0.256 | 0.075 | $50.61 | −$122.44 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.95 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? · Yes | 0.068 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.56 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Trump kiss by May 31? · No | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$299.71 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? · No | 0.446 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.96 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$38.00 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$407.90at 0.380Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$126.57at 0.250Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minutes and 1 hour and 45 minutes?
- +$-7.63at 0.001Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
- +$-10.06at 0.140Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$-11.20at 0.097SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 16:05 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | BUY | 0.1399999971 | $38.00 |
| 06-12 16:02 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | SELL | 0.021 | $3.03 |
| 06-12 16:01 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | SELL | 0.06 | $30.00 |
| 06-12 16:01 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | SELL | 0.015 | $5.83 |
| 06-12 07:51 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | BUY | 0.2 | $100.00 |
| 06-12 06:44 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | BUY | 0.068048638 | $50.00 |
| 06-12 06:44 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.09 | $60.00 |
| 06-12 06:42 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY | 0.089999994 | $13.00 |
| 05-23 05:36 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | BUY | 0.004 | $0.95 |
| 05-23 05:34 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | BUY | 0.022898719 | $10.00 |
| 05-23 05:34 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1499999989 | $100.00 |
| 05-22 20:25 | Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? | BUY | 0.2564345094 | $173.05 |
| 05-22 00:39 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? | SELL | 0.3561046865 | $234.03 |
| 05-21 23:41 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? | BUY | 0.4458989183 | $300.00 |
| 05-21 23:41 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.14 | $429.33 |