rafi100
0xb2bb3f2c462bc7398b1b52d92a381eb5044c003c
- Realised P&L
- $-148.73
- Volume
- $48.4k
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $641.31
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$211.88at 0.200Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$40.40at 0.594Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
- +$35.21at 0.696Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
- +$20.00at 0.420US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14?
- +$15.00at 0.370Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 21:00 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Finance? | BUY | 0.84 | $73.92 |
| 10-12 20:05 | Will Yoav Ben-Tzur be the next Israeli Minister of Interior? | BUY | 0.8394545455 | $92.34 |
| 10-12 20:02 | Israeli election results in a hung parliament? | SELL | 0.6266835 | $125.34 |
| 10-11 17:42 | Will Ofir Katz be the next Israeli Minister of Justice? | BUY | 0.89 | $76.54 |
| 10-10 22:03 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Finance? | BUY | 0.8258286667 | $123.87 |
| 10-10 20:52 | Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027? | BUY | 0.63 | $126.00 |
| 10-10 16:25 | Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? | SELL | 0.21 | $25.20 |
| 10-06 16:53 | Will Amcha Yisrael win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections? | SELL | 0.5006602564 | $78.10 |
| 10-06 16:52 | Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | SELL | 0.4684949457 | $50.05 |
| 10-05 07:54 | Will Amcha Yisrael win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.38 | $36.48 |
| 10-05 07:54 | Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.5 | $48.00 |
| 09-30 17:00 | Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? | BUY | 0.2 | $24.00 |
| 09-30 17:00 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.6401633333 | $76.82 |
| 09-27 09:01 | Israeli election results in a hung parliament? | BUY | 0.6638845797 | $136.09 |
| 09-23 10:17 | Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $48.09 |