0xb2afe83a89223e0d9a31a502aacee28d50725feb
- Realised P&L
- $1.21
- Volume
- $34.83
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $10.44
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration73.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Vinted be #3 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.625 | $3.01 | +$1.71 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.650 | $1.54 | +$0.24 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? · No | 0.650 | 0.725 | $1.45 | +$0.15 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.725 | $1.26 | −$0.04 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.235 | $1.18 | −$0.13 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.185 | $0.93 | −$0.38 |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? · No | 0.260 | 0.120 | $0.60 | −$0.70 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.280 | $0.49 | −$0.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.09at 0.389SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 16?
- +$0.77at 0.632Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$-1.31at 0.787Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 19:58 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.65 | $1.30 |
| 09-17 11:50 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.5499998519 | $1.30 |
| 09-17 03:20 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.30 |
| 09-16 19:11 | Will Vinted be #3 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.2699999896 | $1.30 |
| 09-16 10:55 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 16? | BUY | 0.3799999591 | $1.30 |
| 09-16 02:55 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.779999916 | $1.30 |
| 09-15 18:54 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.30 |
| 09-15 10:51 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.30 |
| 09-15 02:00 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6199997615 | $1.30 |
| 09-14 17:59 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.30 |
| 09-14 09:59 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.30 |