wirklich
0xb29bf73058d1a15a7f5c1529cd846f430fa89e76
- Realised P&L
- $-80.78
- Volume
- $467.4k
- Markets traded
- 156
- Open portfolio
- $283.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded156
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-11-07? · No | 0.330 | 0.325 | $259.99 | −$4.00 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.997 | $12.11 | +$3.12 |
| Will Trump deport 300-400k people? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.115 | $9.45 | −$20.12 |
| Will Trump deport 400-500k people? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.530 | $1.52 | +$0.86 |
| Will Trump deport 200-300k people? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.046 | $0.47 | −$1.16 |
| Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$391.10at 0.100Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$248.03at 0.018Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$236.45at 0.597Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?
- +$217.49at 0.090Will AC Milan advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?
- +$202.42at 0.233Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-19 19:18 | Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | BUY | 0.7399999967 | $8.99 |
| 05-19 19:14 | Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.7199999974 | $200.00 |
| 05-19 19:13 | Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |
| 05-19 19:12 | Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.29999997 | $5.00 |
| 04-03 08:55 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.34 | $0.67 |
| 04-02 12:16 | Will Trump deport 400-500k people? | BUY | 0.23 | $0.15 |
| 03-21 12:37 | Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | BUY | 0.095 | $28.50 |
| 03-11 09:06 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.032 | $3.67 |
| 02-11 12:26 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.1 | $80.00 |
| 02-02 09:59 | Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | SELL | 0.682 | $0.68 |
| 01-22 10:09 | Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | SELL | 0.073 | $335.47 |
| 01-18 04:55 | Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.0250830351 | $59.57 |
| 01-17 16:48 | Bills vs. Broncos | BUY | 0.4799999988 | $80.00 |
| 01-17 16:47 | Bills vs. Broncos | BUY | 0.4799999981 | $50.00 |
| 01-17 16:47 | Bills vs. Broncos | BUY | 0.4799999986 | $71.00 |