0xb29be9E12Ccb20D7900017836bA507b78f95FBD3-1767980473495
0xb29be9e12ccb20d7900017836ba507b78f95fbd3
- Realised P&L
- $-75.32
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $5.13
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.043 | $5.13 | −$9.99 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? · No | 0.064 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.23at 0.802Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
- +$2.71at 0.907Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?
- +$1.96at 0.971Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 14?
- +$0.21at 0.991Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?
- +$-27.38at 0.320Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-21 16:37 | Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1266494776 | $15.12 |
| 01-27 19:26 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 01-27 19:25 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 01-27 19:06 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 01-16 16:49 | Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? | SELL | 0.238 | $18.78 |
| 01-14 17:09 | Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.8849999949 | $69.83 |
| 01-14 17:04 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 14? | SELL | 0.999 | $69.83 |
| 01-14 16:35 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 14? | BUY | 0.9709141668 | $67.87 |
| 01-14 16:26 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.0220722524 | $2.03 |
| 01-14 14:07 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $29.41 |
| 01-14 14:06 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $29.41 |
| 01-14 08:48 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.9069999994 | $26.71 |
| 01-14 07:50 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $26.71 |
| 01-14 05:34 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.9909999998 | $26.50 |
| 01-13 19:23 | Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $26.50 |