0xb293ce82a02f965ac79d1e8c734355b90465d374
0xb293ce82a02f965ac79d1e8c734355b90465d374
- Realised P&L
- $3.49
- Volume
- $252.76
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $4.41
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 9? · Yes | 0.670 | 1.000 | $1.49 | +$0.49 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.480 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.225 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.605 | $0.82 | −$0.18 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.019 | $0.06 | −$0.94 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $360 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$5.63at 0.268Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks in North Carolina?
- +$4.61at 0.308Will Trump say "Communication" during remarks at NASA?
- +$4.38at 0.321Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$4.18at 0.331Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 20:14 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:54 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:53 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 9? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:53 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399996448 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 11:52 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 03:51 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7739998731 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 19:45 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $360 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 11:44 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 03:40 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 10:16 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 10:32 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 02:32 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 18:23 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799999616 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 08:18 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 22:24 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |