CaffeineQueen33
0xb24c347d1fb4251a84a51c8c7b7bfcf2b3bd12df
- Realised P&L
- $-11.42
- Volume
- $115.8k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $5.82
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31? · No | 0.760 | 0.665 | $5.82 | −$0.83 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.37at 0.950Will Chuck Schumer endorse Mamdani?
- +$0.24at 0.949Jones-Aspinall date announced before February?
- +$0.17at 0.960Did Luigi Mangione's parents have UnitedHealthCare?
- +$0.17at 0.978Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of December?
- +$0.07at 0.990Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 07:41 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31? | BUY | 0.76 | $6.65 |
| 09-02 07:41 | NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? | SELL | 0.971 | $6.43 |
| 08-08 14:58 | NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? | BUY | 0.9649999955 | $6.39 |
| 07-23 07:41 | Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by July 31? | BUY | 0.9899998797 | $7.08 |
| 07-23 07:41 | Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? | SELL | 0.968 | $3.78 |
| 06-07 09:30 | Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? | BUY | 0.9469999918 | $3.70 |
| 06-07 09:30 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | SELL | 0.987 | $2.55 |
| 05-17 07:23 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | BUY | 0.9779996297 | $2.53 |
| 05-17 07:22 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.987 | $7.02 |
| 05-09 09:00 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9839999989 | $7.00 |
| 05-09 09:00 | Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? | SELL | 0.988 | $7.00 |
| 04-10 03:21 | Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? | BUY | 0.9859999997 | $7.00 |
| 04-10 03:20 | Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.973 | $7.00 |
| 03-17 11:40 | Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.99 | $7.12 |
| 03-11 11:52 | Will Justin Tucker sign with an NFL team this year? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $7.10 |