Instrumentalmini24
0xb2243960e4bb930bcc98cc5e7886ba2ca93214c8
- Realised P&L
- $7.88
- Volume
- $11.3k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $0.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.026 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.37at 0.590Flyers vs. Capitals
- +$2.99at 0.510Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-21?
- +$2.46at 0.510Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-02-20?
- +$1.71at 0.710Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-02-14?
- +$1.63at 0.650Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 23:40 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 3? | BUY | 0.992 | $2.80 |
| 09-01 23:39 | StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.0270000008 | $1.00 |
| 08-28 13:03 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9909999978 | $2.27 |
| 08-28 13:03 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? | BUY | 0.9689999868 | $1.39 |
| 08-22 11:45 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.9879995918 | $1.82 |
| 08-22 11:45 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 23? | BUY | 0.993 | $2.56 |
| 08-07 02:26 | Will Wayne Rooney attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | BUY | 0.9659997464 | $1.95 |
| 07-23 17:33 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 20-26? | BUY | 0.9759993798 | $1.41 |
| 07-15 00:52 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 16? | BUY | 0.9629994967 | $1.81 |
| 07-15 00:51 | Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.925 | $2.89 |
| 07-08 05:30 | Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Morocco? | BUY | 0.9719999926 | $1.05 |
| 07-08 05:29 | Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 6-12? | BUY | 0.973999998 | $2.97 |
| 06-30 18:43 | Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? | BUY | 0.9569997842 | $3.84 |
| 06-09 16:42 | Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $2.5k |
| 06-09 15:17 | Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.5k |