vila
0xb209efa4a44585789e167ef4b9f1415a4f1a2639
- Realised P&L
- $-272.62
- Volume
- $34.9k
- Markets traded
- 121
- Open portfolio
- $30.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded121
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.742 | 0.762 | $10.28 | +$0.28 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.575 | $10.27 | +$0.27 |
| Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? · No | 0.940 | 0.915 | $9.73 | −$0.27 |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of May 25 above $430? · No | 0.602 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.00at 0.500US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$9.55at 0.780Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October?
- +$7.98at 0.991Solana Up or Down - April 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
- +$7.90at 0.991Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
- +$5.43at 0.991Solana Up or Down - April 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 22:35 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.9099999994 | $15.00 |
| 08-08 22:35 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.9399999774 | $10.00 |
| 08-08 22:35 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.9579999969 | $10.00 |
| 08-08 22:35 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.7419999948 | $10.00 |
| 08-08 22:34 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.5599999776 | $10.00 |
| 08-08 22:34 | Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9399999981 | $10.00 |
| 08-08 06:52 | Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.673 | $8.26 |
| 08-08 06:52 | Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.79 | $8.87 |
| 08-08 06:51 | Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.775 | $12.49 |
| 05-29 00:09 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.9699999521 | $17.00 |
| 05-29 00:09 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.8519999168 | $10.00 |
| 05-29 00:08 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of May 25 above $430? | BUY | 0.6019998926 | $5.00 |
| 05-29 00:07 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY | 0.9349999991 | $15.00 |
| 05-29 00:06 | Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8899999947 | $10.00 |
| 05-29 00:06 | Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8145617274 | $10.00 |