carlos-m88
0xb20706bc47dd4725540a8a7e032e7c66c4c47f71
- Realised P&L
- $16.52
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $323.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027? · No | 0.940 | 0.954 | $65.37 | +$0.96 |
| Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? · No | 0.950 | 0.955 | $62.03 | +$0.32 |
| Will the Republican Party win the MS-04 House seat? · Yes | 0.965 | 0.963 | $60.70 | −$0.16 |
| Over 30M humans verified on World Network by December 31? · No | 0.967 | 0.920 | $58.94 | −$3.01 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the WV-02 House seat? · No | 0.975 | 0.968 | $48.62 | −$0.35 |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.675 | $27.43 | −$10.77 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.02at 0.936Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- +$1.98at 0.962Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 27-May 3?
- +$1.95at 0.947Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?
- +$1.58at 0.950Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.44at 0.934Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-07 12:48 | Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.9339999981 | $20.44 |