Noluckniga
0xb1fd5ef61c21060618b845a12e85359e4dbd5184
- Realised P&L
- $-1.8k
- Volume
- $263.2k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $6.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration75.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.187 | 0.080 | $6.8k | −$9.2k |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$385.89 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.4kat 0.380US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?
- +$1.8kat 0.670US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$532.82at 0.435US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$14.54at 0.310Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
- +$9.72at 0.480US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-10 09:20 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1815420502 | $5.7k |
| 03-10 09:20 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1899712595 | $10.3k |
| 03-10 09:16 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.0304327895 | $2.0k |
| 03-10 00:32 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $127.26 |
| 03-10 00:32 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL | 0.4484419933 | $18.0k |
| 03-03 21:01 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999983 | $112.72 |
| 03-03 20:58 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL | 0.577184 | $57.72 |
| 03-03 20:58 | Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | SELL | 0.55 | $55.00 |
| 03-03 12:58 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY | 0.4351975588 | $17.5k |
| 03-02 22:00 | Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | BUY | 0.48 | $48.00 |
| 03-02 21:56 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.48 | $48.00 |
| 02-28 09:39 | US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $12.0k |
| 02-27 21:22 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $338.35 |
| 02-27 18:33 | US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $39.71 |
| 01-30 13:19 | US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999995 | $385.89 |