0xb1fb434c92ae291c8f51bc3280b1312e9ba179b2
- Realised P&L
- $-100.49
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $37.05
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)7.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.466 | 0.225 | $25.33 | −$27.14 |
| US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? · No | 0.680 | 0.935 | $11.69 | +$3.19 |
| Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.004 | $0.03 | −$4.92 |
| Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.349 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$36.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.40at 0.450Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.170Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- +$0.00at 0.989Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025?
- +$-0.01at 0.961Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?
- +$-0.03at 0.013Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-24 19:21 | Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3490470947 | $36.63 |
| 01-24 02:26 | Theo FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4661126171 | $52.47 |
| 01-22 09:46 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.23 | $45.54 |
| 01-21 19:36 | Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025? | SELL | 0.989 | $4.95 |
| 01-21 19:36 | Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.53 | $2.65 |
| 01-21 19:36 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.958 | $4.79 |
| 01-21 19:36 | Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.10 |
| 01-21 18:58 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $49.50 |
| 01-19 14:34 | Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $4.95 |
| 01-18 16:10 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.961 | $4.80 |
| 01-18 15:49 | Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025? | BUY | 0.989 | $4.95 |
| 01-18 15:32 | Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025? | BUY | 0.01377 | $0.07 |
| 01-18 15:18 | Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025? | BUY | 0.013 | $0.07 |
| 01-18 14:10 | Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $2.25 |
| 01-17 01:35 | Will Teddy Swims perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | SELL | 0.23 | $6.90 |