laurapace
0xb1f53d5b6c5d9305fa5766cf7d7a9b856a19dbff
- Realised P&L
- $-12.02
- Volume
- $23.6k
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $25.51
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.570 | $25.51 | −$0.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.54at 0.540Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22?
- +$0.57at 0.950Will Everton win on 2024-12-22?
- +$0.42at 0.977Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April?
- +$0.24at 0.977Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?
- +$0.21at 0.994Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 14:01 | Will BNB dip to $700 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999796 | $11.75 |
| 01-30 12:50 | Will Chainlink hit $23 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.50 |
| 01-30 12:25 | Will Chainlink hit $19 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $40.25 |
| 01-30 11:39 | Will Opendoor reach $9.25 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $61.72 |
| 12-30 14:48 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $6.58 |
| 12-30 13:26 | Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.45 |
| 12-29 21:14 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999859 | $20.69 |
| 12-29 21:01 | Dogecoin all time high before 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999803 | $36.25 |
| 12-29 20:06 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999977 | $25.03 |
| 12-29 19:20 | Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $25.91 |
| 10-30 21:23 | Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $39.94 |
| 10-30 21:00 | Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $39.24 |
| 10-30 17:22 | Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $39.59 |
| 09-29 13:41 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.94 |
| 09-29 06:45 | Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $14.93 |