Etalon
0xb1e40c9248a60b3f4a34fa3ec8115156804b068b
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $77.4k
- Markets traded
- 345
- Open portfolio
- $296.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded345
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$231.54at 0.060Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?
- +$102.21at 0.090Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6?
- +$98.34at 0.036Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 3?
- +$89.26at 0.178Bitcoin Up or Down on February 6?
- +$78.33at 0.060Ethereum Up or Down on February 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-25 05:42 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase July 21-27? | BUY | 0.2599998648 | $1.00 |
| 07-01 20:59 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $45.98 |
| 06-27 23:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 2? | BUY | 0.0365612301 | $1.00 |
| 06-27 23:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 1? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 06-27 23:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 1? | BUY | 0.0233348666 | $1.00 |
| 06-27 23:28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 30? | BUY | 0.011999988 | $1.00 |
| 06-27 23:28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? | BUY | 0.032 | $1.00 |
| 06-25 18:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? | BUY | 0.0628428787 | $4.00 |
| 06-22 09:56 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.044999994 | $7.00 |
| 06-15 11:30 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1488372093 | $50.00 |
| 06-15 06:20 | Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? | BUY | 0.18 | $9.00 |
| 06-14 23:24 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $11.00 |
| 06-14 23:20 | Will Solana reach $220 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0879851254 | $5.00 |
| 06-11 05:10 | Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.3599999942 | $24.63 |
| 06-09 22:54 | Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.359999987 | $10.00 |