0xb1e2bc2e23e2b48b4961349bf730e4296fac49ab
0xb1e2bc2e23e2b48b4961349bf730e4296fac49ab
- Realised P&L
- $23.44
- Volume
- $442.00
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $65.60
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration98.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.236 | 0.735 | $37.33 | +$25.33 |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.356 | 0.375 | $6.99 | +$0.35 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.081 | $5.63 | +$1.48 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.795 | $4.44 | +$0.42 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.226 | 0.075 | $3.97 | −$8.02 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.143 | 0.069 | $3.79 | −$4.11 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.366 | 0.140 | $3.46 | −$5.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$32.40at 0.198Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?
- +$0.67at 0.500Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?
- +$-9.63at 0.085Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 16:09 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.839 | $1.68 |
| 09-21 12:28 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.901 | $0.32 |
| 09-21 12:28 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.923 | $1.06 |
| 09-21 11:16 | Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 10:54 | Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 19:00 | Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.063 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 04:55 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $4.02 |
| 09-15 04:54 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.152 | $1.90 |
| 09-13 01:28 | Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 23:53 | Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 00:56 | Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 03:46 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 21:06 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 19:59 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 18:17 | Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $2.00 |