DavidUnderwood4784
0xb1e152478c408b3bc834ef6447f4a67aa3dad9c1
- Realised P&L
- $-434.11
- Volume
- $139.0k
- Markets traded
- 268
- Open portfolio
- $425.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded268
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? · $60 | 0.710 | 0.780 | $340.08 | +$30.52 |
| Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.790 | $81.37 | +$4.12 |
| Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? · No | 0.770 | 0.720 | $2.16 | −$0.15 |
| Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? · No | 0.490 | 0.972 | $0.97 | +$0.48 |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? · No | 0.840 | 0.955 | $0.95 | +$0.12 |
| Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.009 | $0.15 | −$1.98 |
| Will Consensys IPO by June 30 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$379.83at 0.530Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
- +$190.98at 0.380Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75%?
- +$119.72at 0.180Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Harris" this week? (March 8)
- +$79.20at 0.490Will the US strike Somalia next?
- +$77.72at 0.898California Golden Bears vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-22 01:27 | Will Montenegro win on 2026-03-31? | SELL | 0.41 | $323.49 |
| 03-20 14:35 | Will Montenegro win on 2026-03-31? | BUY | 0.88 | $694.32 |
| 03-18 13:33 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $204.24 |
| 03-16 22:14 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $216.08 |
| 03-16 07:41 | Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026? | SELL | 0.51 | $232.56 |
| 03-16 00:20 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? | SELL | 0.65 | $508.30 |
| 03-15 13:11 | Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $305.52 |
| 03-14 12:33 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? | BUY | 0.65 | $508.30 |
| 03-12 15:57 | California Golden Bears vs. Virginia Cavaliers | BUY | 0.898 | $684.28 |
| 03-10 13:56 | Deel IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.78 | $25.74 |
| 03-10 13:14 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.64 | $53.12 |
| 03-07 06:44 | Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? | SELL | 0.19 | $7.41 |
| 03-07 06:40 | Will Donna Miller be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02? | SELL | 0.47 | $202.57 |
| 03-06 15:55 | Deel IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $27.72 |
| 03-05 14:24 | Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? | BUY | 0.17 | $6.63 |