Sk30600
0xb1d920822c6ad224465209b0f1dd22eb5c5ace1c
- Realised P&L
- $226.64
- Volume
- $59.6k
- Markets traded
- 985
- Open portfolio
- $6.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded985
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)14.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? · No | 0.809 | 0.805 | $2.6k | −$13.56 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes | 0.767 | 0.992 | $2.6k | +$583.59 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? · No | 0.487 | 0.485 | $810.76 | −$4.24 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.427 | 0.403 | $659.94 | −$40.06 |
| Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.15% before 2027? · No | 0.670 | 0.765 | $57.09 | +$7.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$196.93at 0.894Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
- +$138.79at 0.924Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$136.08at 0.930US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?
- +$89.81at 0.720Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?
- +$85.10at 0.460Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 22:23 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October? | SELL | 0.0317395996 | $15.00 |
| 10-30 17:15 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October? | BUY | 0.2866688931 | $5.00 |
| 10-30 15:20 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.4269325688 | $700.00 |
| 10-30 15:16 | Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.15% before 2027? | BUY | 0.6699999971 | $50.00 |
| 10-30 15:05 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.4899999998 | $400.00 |
| 10-30 12:41 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.8099999999 | $1.5k |
| 10-30 12:18 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.8099999994 | $900.00 |
| 10-30 12:17 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $199.20 |
| 10-29 22:14 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.8639913254 | $500.00 |
| 10-28 16:35 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.4851843987 | $415.00 |
| 10-28 16:34 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October? | BUY | 0.4092155338 | $100.00 |
| 10-28 16:34 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.952 | $515.21 |
| 10-28 10:22 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October? | BUY | 0.6499999993 | $137.00 |
| 10-26 18:50 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9238860895 | $2.0k |
| 10-26 15:56 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | SELL | 0.9932769968 | $2.1k |