0xb1bb11b3db12b2b8a0701ae92318b646e4967413
0xb1bb11b3db12b2b8a0701ae92318b646e4967413
- Realised P&L
- $1.22
- Volume
- $337.15
- Markets traded
- 100
- Open portfolio
- $7.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded100
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.780 | 0.986 | $2.00 | +$0.42 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 1.000 | $1.33 | +$0.33 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.835 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.745 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.755 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · No | 0.660 | 0.435 | $0.66 | −$0.34 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $480 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.140 | $0.38 | −$0.62 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · No | 0.370 | 0.038 | $0.10 | −$0.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.69at 0.260US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$3.82at 0.351Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?
- +$3.13at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$2.88at 0.410US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$2.81at 0.270Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 02:35 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 05:55 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 21:39 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $480 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 10:21 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699996918 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 01:22 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 16:54 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 07:46 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 23:45 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 13:56 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 05:18 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 19:38 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 11:25 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 03:17 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 06:32 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 06:32 | Will Warsh say "Scenario" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |