0xb1ad47e931e04bae88c538b03129c932e6b0079d
- Realised P&L
- $-8.31
- Volume
- $606.00
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $32.47
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration80.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.840 | 0.845 | $7.61 | +$0.04 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.760 | 0.830 | $5.81 | +$0.49 |
| H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.945 | $4.72 | +$2.22 |
| Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.945 | $4.72 | +$0.22 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.533 | 0.304 | $4.26 | −$3.20 |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.170 | $2.38 | −$3.36 |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.041 | $2.05 | −$2.45 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.065 | $0.46 | −$0.94 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.226 | 0.086 | $0.43 | −$0.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.00at 0.500Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
- +$2.88at 0.590Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.49at 0.223Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
- +$0.48at 0.866U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
- +$0.35at 0.730Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-07 19:46 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.76 | $5.32 |
| 07-03 10:06 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.747 | $3.73 |
| 06-28 04:47 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $7.56 |
| 06-24 17:01 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.073 | $1.17 |
| 06-22 15:17 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.50 |
| 06-20 14:21 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.855 | $8.55 |
| 06-16 19:55 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $10.12 |
| 06-14 12:55 | Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.25 |
| 06-13 06:20 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $3.80 |
| 06-08 05:33 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $4.40 |
| 06-06 12:10 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.521 | $4.17 |
| 05-24 20:12 | Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $4.50 |
| 04-25 20:56 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $7.20 |
| 04-25 20:56 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.40 |
| 04-25 20:56 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.59 | $9.44 |