PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

thompsonmargaret

0xb19a45d2d4d7183baf705a05889c418cc3973fbd

Realised P&L
$52.59
Volume
$11.6k
Markets traded
78
Open portfolio
$14.38

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded78
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration55.1% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 29? · Yes0.6800.765$14.38+$1.60

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
01-31 13:50Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?BUY0.9969997539$3.99
01-30 15:55Will Opendoor dip to $2.50 in January?BUY0.999$6.41
01-30 15:36Will Solana reach $150 in January?BUY0.999$13.52
01-30 14:12Will BNB dip to $700 in January?BUY0.9969999692$19.21
01-30 13:00Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?BUY0.999$28.20
12-30 08:49Xi Jinping out in 2025?BUY0.997999995$15.70
12-30 00:11Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025?BUY0.998$9.47
12-29 23:51Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?BUY0.998$24.12
12-29 21:52Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025?BUY0.999$20.71
10-30 23:02Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31?BUY0.999$21.85
10-30 20:53Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on October 31?BUY0.999$21.81
09-29 11:39Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?BUY0.9979999948$15.45
09-28 23:28Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September?BUY0.998$10.71
09-28 22:41Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in September?BUY0.999$14.80
09-28 22:18Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?BUY0.997999975$14.63