thompsonmargaret
0xb19a45d2d4d7183baf705a05889c418cc3973fbd
- Realised P&L
- $52.59
- Volume
- $11.6k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $14.38
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 29? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.765 | $14.38 | +$1.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$35.57at 0.530Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?
- +$19.07at 0.412Ripple above $2.40 on January 10?
- +$15.78at 0.660Will Kai and Speed take 200 or more attempts to beat Fortnite?
- +$15.02at 0.670Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?
- +$7.13at 0.720Circle IPO in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9969997539 | $3.99 |
| 01-30 15:55 | Will Opendoor dip to $2.50 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.41 |
| 01-30 15:36 | Will Solana reach $150 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.52 |
| 01-30 14:12 | Will BNB dip to $700 in January? | BUY | 0.9969999692 | $19.21 |
| 01-30 13:00 | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $28.20 |
| 12-30 08:49 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.997999995 | $15.70 |
| 12-30 00:11 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $9.47 |
| 12-29 23:51 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $24.12 |
| 12-29 21:52 | Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.71 |
| 10-30 23:02 | Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.85 |
| 10-30 20:53 | Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.81 |
| 09-29 11:39 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? | BUY | 0.9979999948 | $15.45 |
| 09-28 23:28 | Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.71 |
| 09-28 22:41 | Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.80 |
| 09-28 22:18 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.997999975 | $14.63 |