fractaldu
0xb1929cf214ce68a197a9dedbffa3e54b038914dd
- Realised P&L
- $1.4k
- Volume
- $892.7k
- Markets traded
- 2,133
- Open portfolio
- $5.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,133
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C or higher on August 6? · No | 0.998 | 0.997 | $1.5k | −$2.25 |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on August 6? · No | 0.995 | 0.993 | $1.4k | −$3.15 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on August 5? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $904.34 | +$0.61 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.999 | 0.998 | $815.99 | −$0.82 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on August 5? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $518.92 | +$0.26 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 5? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $343.49 | +$0.17 |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.999 | 1.000 | $243.93 | +$0.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.34at 0.995Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C or higher on May 20?
- +$14.98at 0.980Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 25?
- +$12.83at 0.991Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 2?
- +$11.90at 0.993Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on July 31?
- +$11.89at 0.993Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 19:57 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.996 | $697.20 |
| 08-05 19:56 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $518.66 |
| 08-05 19:54 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.995 | $356.69 |
| 08-05 16:47 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.994 | $49.70 |
| 08-05 16:39 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C or higher on August 6? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.5k |
| 08-05 16:39 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.994 | $281.49 |
| 08-05 16:34 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $349.65 |
| 08-05 16:32 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $449.57 |
| 08-05 16:32 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.998 | $94.81 |
| 08-05 16:27 | Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $816.81 |
| 08-05 16:26 | Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $343.32 |
| 08-05 16:24 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $189.67 |
| 08-05 16:08 | Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 08-05 10:01 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.998 | $76.19 |
| 08-05 09:41 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $119.88 |