0xB15dDEc0f7D4D9dB591BC281978104532936558A-1768034303402
0xb15ddec0f7d4d9db591bc281978104532936558a
- Realised P&L
- $134.78
- Volume
- $5.1k
- Markets traded
- 89
- Open portfolio
- $323.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded89
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$55.63at 0.656Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
- +$14.58at 0.616US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
- +$14.35at 0.574U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?
- +$7.95at 0.726Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$5.33at 0.150Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 08:20 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.9199999474 | $14.00 |
| 08-01 08:16 | Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BUY | 0.8399999395 | $5.00 |
| 08-01 08:06 | Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999963 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 07:50 | Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999947 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 07:49 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.698881789 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 07:00 | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $10.00 |
| 07-20 08:47 | Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9149999976 | $17.00 |
| 07-20 08:46 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $17.01 |
| 07-19 13:53 | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999973 | $38.00 |
| 07-19 13:53 | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by July 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $37.21 |
| 07-17 02:48 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999668 | $23.00 |
| 07-17 02:42 | Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $23.33 |
| 07-04 13:54 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9279489617 | $28.00 |
| 07-04 13:53 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $28.40 |
| 07-04 00:32 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9489999992 | $10.00 |